Solar Explosions

[Zer0th]

He [Leif Svalgaard] reports that the spot flux measurements continue in line [downwards] with the theory of Livingstone & Penn, that if born out will mean sun spots will become invisible by 2015. That is Maunder territory.

If the correlation of minimums with the Little Ice Age is more than coincidental... *shiver*

You read it here first...

The American Astronomical Society via space.com
Sun's Fading Spots Signal Big Drop in Solar Activity

[Tired Old Man]

I think it was last year I said I hate the cold. Bring on global warming.

Go figure. We could be looking at the next mini ice age.

[Ningishiddza]

The US Air Force agrees.

Maybe we can call this one the Obaminimum.

During the Maunder there were near-famine conditions in the Colonies. The growing season in New England was shortened to 6 weeks and the area between what is now Interstate 80 and Interstate 70 had a growing season of about 10 weeks.

Granted, New England isn't the bread-basket of the US, but the other area is.

Central Europe had famine conditions and few million died, mostly in the Low Lands, the German Duchies, Denmark and Norway.

[Tired Old Man]

The US Air Force agrees.

Maybe we can call this one the Obaminimum.

During the Maunder there were near-famine conditions in the Colonies. The growing season in New England was shortened to 6 weeks and the area between what is now Interstate 80 and Interstate 70 had a growing season of about 10 weeks.

Granted, New England isn't the bread-basket of the US, but the other area is.

Central Europe had famine conditions and few million died, mostly in the Low Lands, the German Duchies, Denmark and Norway.

Your always the bearer of good news Ning......

But I'm still holding out hope. Hey Al Gore and and and someone said something about global warming. I was going to kept burning wood and trash and driving my car in hope of Helping to warm the planet.
I NEED MORE CO2 !!!

Wait a second. Wasn't all that stuff up in the air blocking the sun back in the 70's ? OK only one thing to do.
The U.S. Air force needs to send a giant alarm clock up to wake up the Sun.
I hate cold.

[Ningishiddza]

Your always the bearer of good news Ning......

But I'm still holding out hope. Hey Al Gore and and and someone said something about global warming. I was going to kept burning wood and trash and driving my car in hope of Helping to warm the planet.
I NEED MORE CO2 !!!

Wait a second. Wasn't all that stuff up in the air blocking the sun back in the 70's ? OK only one thing to do.
The U.S. Air force needs to send a giant alarm clock up to wake up the Sun.
I hate cold.

The air force is reporting stuff like this:

oint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Occasional
B-class x-ray flares occurred. There were three small,
simply-structured spots groups on the disk, including newly-numbered
Region 1235 (N14E27). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
occurred during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (12 - 14 June) with a slight chance for a
C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels. Active levels
occurred during 11/0300 - 0600Z, associated with a period of
increased interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt (peak 10 nT) and
southward IMF Bz (peak deflection -8 nT). ACE solar wind data
indicated a co-rotating interaction region occurred during the first
half of the period, in advance of a coronal hole high-speed stream
(CH HSS). The CH HSS commenced around 11/1025Z, followed by a
gradual increase in solar wind speeds (380 to 460 km/s) during the
rest of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 3 (12 -
14 June) with a chance for brief active periods due to CH HSS
effects.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

Minimums are not well understand and they're just now starting to figure them out. The Nile froze twice, once in 829 and again in 1010. Why didn't it freeze in the other Minimums? I don't know.

Obviously the weather patterns change over time.

The problem in New England was that the ground was frozen. That's why the growing season was so short. The ground would thaw out about the 2nd week of July, and then they'd go plow the fields, plant seed and 6 weeks later it would get cold and start snowing.

Farther south, mostly Pennsylvania (but today that would include northern Ohio and Indiana, central Illinois, all of Iowa), the ground thawed out around the 1st week of June and it didn't start getting cold until mid to late August.

This isn't something that happened suddenly, rather it was a gradual change. Every year, the ground would thaw out a week later and before you know it, it's April, then May, then June, then July.

They plowed by hand, or if they had some money maybe they had an ox. We have tractors now, but still you can't plow if the first couple inches of soil are frozen, because it tear them up and the first heavy rain would wash away the top soil. A couple of cold and dry years and you can have a dust bowl.

No matter how you look at it, it's devastating. Imagine having to heat your home with natural gas all the way through May and June and then start heating again in September. Can you say "foreclosure?"

We had a lot of "utility foreclosures" here. Those were people who paid $50/month for electric in their apartment (heat is included in rent) and now they have a McMansion and its panic time when the first bill $150 and then tack on a 30% rate increase by Duke and then the natural gas for winter and people had $3,000/month utility bills. Duke cut them off after 90 days, so here they are in this huge McMansion with no electric and no heat. They just walked away from it.

[Tired Old Man]

The air force is reporting stuff like this:



Minimums are not well understand and they're just now starting to figure them out. The Nile froze twice, once in 829 and again in 1010. Why didn't it freeze in the other Minimums? I don't know.

Obviously the weather patterns change over time.

The problem in New England was that the ground was frozen. That's why the growing season was so short. The ground would thaw out about the 2nd week of July, and then they'd go plow the fields, plant seed and 6 weeks later it would get cold and start snowing.

Farther south, mostly Pennsylvania (but today that would include northern Ohio and Indiana, central Illinois, all of Iowa), the ground thawed out around the 1st week of June and it didn't start getting cold until mid to late August.

This isn't something that happened suddenly, rather it was a gradual change. Every year, the ground would thaw out a week later and before you know it, it's April, then May, then June, then July.

They plowed by hand, or if they had some money maybe they had an ox. We have tractors now, but still you can't plow if the first couple inches of soil are frozen, because it tear them up and the first heavy rain would wash away the top soil. A couple of cold and dry years and you can have a dust bowl.

No matter how you look at it, it's devastating. Imagine having to heat your home with natural gas all the way through May and June and then start heating again in September. Can you say "foreclosure?"

We had a lot of "utility foreclosures" here. Those were people who paid $50/month for electric in their apartment (heat is included in rent) and now they have a McMansion and its panic time when the first bill $150 and then tack on a 30% rate increase by Duke and then the natural gas for winter and people had $3,000/month utility bills. Duke cut them off after 90 days, so here they are in this huge McMansion with no electric and no heat. They just walked away from it.

You have a thing for Mc Mansion don't you ? Okay let me see if I can understand this. From renters to home owners. From $50 a month for heating an apartment to $150 to heat a Mc Mansion. That must have been a small Mc Mansion.

Darwin at work ? On your own you can hunt and kill a wild pig once a week and feed your family. But now you want a second wife, and more kids.
Like I said, Darwin at work.

[Ningishiddza]

You have a thing for Mc Mansion don't you ?

It's excessive. And ugly. I walk through neighborhoods where no two houses look alike. They're all different. Wood, brick, field-stone, half-brick, German ranch, Tudor, Greek hill house, semi-Tudor, Italian city-house, they're all unique and give it character. If housing is an indicator, then I'd say it's an indicator of systemic problems: uniformity vs individuality.

Okay let me see if I can understand this. From renters to home owners. From $50 a month for heating an apartment to $150 to heat a Mc Mansion. That must have been a small Mc Mansion.

No, that's the electric. I rent a condo and my electric is $22/month. $25 if I run the ceiling fan a lot. My father pays $150/month in electric and that's just a 2,200 sq ft 2-story. I don't really understand that, unless the dogs are in the basement running the router and sander. It's rare to pay for heat when you rent, but about 6 years ago I rented an old city town house and it was $600/month to heat 800+ sq ft I had the thermostat set at 68° and ran the fire-place.

The rate hike was a big deal here. 30% across the board is a lot. My electric jumped from $15/month to $19/month so that meant I could only eat at Chicago Gyros once a month instead of twice a month.

But for all those in the McMansions, that rate hike was equivalent to one or two car payments, so yes, people were walking away from their McMansions and letting the banks foreclose before the repo men took their SUVs.

Darwin at work ? On your own you can hunt and kill a wild pig once a week and feed your family. But now you want a second wife, and more kids. Like I said, Darwin at work.

400 years you could do that. 4 people per square mile hunting wild animals is not the same as 10,000 people per square mile hunting wild animals. And once you kill and eat all the animals, there aren't any more.

This would be a gradual thing, not something sudden. What would happen is the price of non-food crops, like coffee, chocolate and sugar cane would sky rocket, as would bio-fuel crops. At some point they become unprofitable, and then they'll just convert those to food crops.

I wouldn't exactly call it an Armageddon, but you would be looking at some real serious economic problems. Unemployment would be made much worse and the western developed nations would be impacted more severely than the developing nations.

[Bob]

RE: Imagine having to heat your home with natural gas all the way through May and June and then start heating again in September. Can you say "foreclosure?"

No, but I can say...Welcome to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan!