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Thread: Timing of Dubai debt crisis worrisome

  1. #1
    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    Exclamation Timing of Dubai debt crisis worrisome

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    I just have one big question. Why the pea and shell game regarding Dubai's default on their debt? Why wait until most U.S. investors are on holiday to release this worrisome news?

    I've been listening to both sides of the argument all day from various pundits on CNBC, and none of them have a very good answer.
    They were all very happy to say what their view is, but barely a smidgen regarding the timing.

    The truth is, the release was perfectly timed to help hide not peas, but fear. To help smooth things over and give investors time to rationalize and spin this in a positive light.

    The area and apex of [triangles] are the focal points of my predictions.


    [Dubai Debt Delays Revive Fear of Financial Crisis] - MSNBC - Friday, 27 Nov 2009 | 12:20 AM ET



    Investors recoiled from risky assets on Friday and dumped shares in Asian banks and builders, fearing a Dubai debt default could reignite the financial turmoil of the credit crisis.

    Stocks in Tokyo and Hong Kong were haunted by suspicion of lenders' exposure to the Dubai firms that built palm-frond shaped islands in the Gulf and planned cities from Pakistan to Africa.

    The emirate, which emerged from dusty obscurity to became a trading and tourism hub with global ambitions, said on Wednesday it would ask creditors of state-owned Dubai World and Nakheel to agree to a standstill on billions of dollars of debt as a first step towards restructuring.

    Dubai World, the conglomerate that led the emirate's expansion, had $59 billion of liabilities as of August, a large proportion of Dubai's total debt of $80 billion. Nakheel was the builder of three palm shaped islands off Dubai.

    The news shook markets that are recovering from the collapse of the U.S. housing market and contagion that threatened to rupture the global financial system last year.

    "The panic button's been hit again," said Francis Lun, general manager of Fulbright Securities ... cont. at link above
    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

  2. #2
    Angel Contributor Cherisa's Avatar
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    Give peas a chance..
    "DARK-SIDED! Tampering in dark-sided stuff.
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  3. #3
    Leader of the bomb shelter Seasoned Member PanamaGuy's Avatar
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    Thats a good one......

  4. #4
    Radioactive
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    In answer to your question Raptor - the timing

    Not only was the U.S having their Thanksgiving holiday but Muslims also were on holiday - this means the fallout reaction over global stock markets was a tiered one - rather than a mass panic of selling globally had all the markets been open . (think sheep herd mentality!)

    1) Was it a dummy run to guage world reaction before the next snippet of bad news is launched ?

    2 )Who will benefit from this fall-out ?

    Regarding point 1 above sky news ran a quick ticker headline announcing Abu Dhabi would be 'selective' as to which bits of the default it would help Dubai out with - also known as cherry-picking ! The story was pulled very quickly so apologies no link. If it is true , come Monday all eyes will be on which banks have the most exposure ? (RBS has been touted as heavily exposed, among other British banks) Expect to see Sterling fall heavily as the overall U.K. exposure is in the high billions. European banks may well be exposed via derivative purchases ..... is a picture starting to form yet ?

    2) The USD could momentarily be perceived (as it always used to be) as a safe haven currency and rally - giving a much needed boost to the U.S. of A's global reputation - what purpose this could serve over such a short time frame is anyone's guess ?

    If nothing else news of a Sovereign default by apparently rich Arabs could be a wonderful smokescreen to bury some other bad news.....

  5. #5
    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    This is the second time this month, that we've seen this curious pea and shell game. The last time was earlier, when [Warren Buffet bought Northern Pacific Railroad,] just as the [DOW Transport Index] was crumbling, threatening to drag down the entire equity market.

    Anyone with any sense should be watching out for that pea too big to hide, because I have a feeling there are several [coming down the pike.]
    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

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    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    Anyone who seeks to build the [world's tallest luxury hotel,] in the shape of a giant sail, is asking for trouble.


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    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

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    Survivalist! Reef Badlaw's Avatar
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    Don't believe the mainstream-media's reports of 'thousands' of abandoned cars at Dubai's airport, relative-to people escaping bad-check charges. -Which are a jailable offense there. At present, the car-story seems to be a myth driven (pun) by market-panic.

    http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com...hp?ref=reccafe

    I may be wrong...

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    Survivalist! Abyssal_Worm's Avatar
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    That is one of the neatest buildings I have ever seen.
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    GEAUX SAINTS! Contributor pico's Avatar
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    I think this whole Dubai thing is just a stutter in the eventual collapse of the US economy. It is clear the US economy only does well when the US Dollar is failing. Gold will likely remain high, and the economy will continue to move forward until the US Dollar officially goes down like the Titanic.

  10. #10
    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    The debt crisis is spreading. Blind optimism is never obvious until it hits you in the face.
    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

  11. #11
    Radioactive
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    Yes, this has been the initial wake-up regarding what's to come - we've had residentail foreclosures, next as many pundits forecasts is the shake-out of commercial real estate, and somehow we have a potential sovereign default - tho' they'll thrash it out somehow

    Next Sovereign 10/1 odds Greece and the med ripple will begin and with it the further clenching of any business lending....1929-33 take 2 folks - panning out - just over 2/3 thru that pattern

  12. #12
    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    The big pea, that very few have their eyes on, is called ["glacial isostatic adjustment."] Throw that term at anyone on Wall Street and see if you get a smirk.

    Last month, we set [a new record low for sea ice at the north pole,] which demonstrates that the rapid melting trend continues.



    "According to the [Mohr-Coulomb Theory of rock failure,] large glacial loads generally suppress earthquakes, but rapid deglaciation promotes earthquakes."

    Remember what I said about the apex of those triangles? AS it turns out, the record melt that took place in November was due to an unusual weather event. ["What caused the new record low?"]

    Quote Originally Posted by Raptor Witness View Post
    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

  13. #13
    ראה Contributor Raptor Witness's Avatar
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    [Dubai proposes paying creditors 60 cents on the dollar] - Feb. 15, 2010 - WSJ

    I wouldn't exactly call this a win win situation for the owner or creditor's of the world's tallest building, would you?
    "In the last days perilous times will come, for men shall have a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof." 2 Tim 3

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