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Thread: is it time to talk about depression?

  1. #2001
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius View Post
    A Very Scary Christmas And An Incredibly Frightening New Year



    Just like in the depression, the only way out of this mess is a war. The problem is that now we, and other nations have nuclear weapons, and they would be used. I think the Republicans know this, that's why they are being so hawkish about Iran.

    United States 1776-2008 R.I.P.
    Go play with your new gadgets and gizmos and don't worry. The government will solve everything and we need not worry. They are going to protect us from terrorists both foreign and domestic without us even knowing it! All this false news about the economy will be eradicated with SOPA so we will finally have the truthful news that we need to have and not all this splintered stuff.


  2. #2002
    ### of all Things Nuclear Ningishiddza's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hobobone View Post
    The unemployment numbers are also very misleading in the fact that many of the jobs that people have recently acquired, are holiday jobs and right after the first of the year will disappear. I know two people who were hired at Sears and were told to expect to be laid off by around 1/15/12....
    Your friends were right.

    Sears, Kmart Closings Will Shutter 3 Percent Of Company's Stores

    There's the headline that "dozens of Kmart, Sears stores to close" and the topline news that "between 100 and 120 Sears and Kmart stores" are going to be shut down as the retailer looks to trim costs and move ahead after it endured a pretty poor holiday shopping season.
    http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/...=1&f=103943429

    Quote Originally Posted by hobobone View Post
    It will be interesting to see if the unemployment benefits are extended.
    They were as part of the Bread & Circuses™ routine.

    Quote Originally Posted by hobobone View Post
    I know people who have been on unemployment for 4 years..They wont get a job due to the fact that they made so much money in their previous employment, that no one can even come close to matching it...
    I don't know about the laws in all States, but I do know that is fraud in Ohio (you cannot turn down a job because it doesn't pay enough), and in this climate, it will be dealt with severely. In Ohio, the only way you can legally turn down a job would be if you applied for a job as a machinist, and it turns out you'd actually be operating a grinder instead of a lathe or mill (as an example). Ohio does have a [very] small staff of fraud investigators, plus they routinely do audits. You're required to record your contacts. If they call an employer you listed and you did not file an application or resume, or you declined a job because of the money, the State will get medieval on you. And I do mean medieval. If you own a home/condo, you'll get a notice to leave the premises within 30 days (because the State will seize your property and auction it off to recover the money).

    Quote Originally Posted by hobobone View Post
    That loss of spending from those people will also affect our economy..
    Yes, but not that greatly.

    Quote Originally Posted by PoorOldRobert View Post
    Ditto Bakken and Haynesville oil shale fields. It's a shame there isn't a reasonable energy policy in the U.S. More stringent laws? Why? Enforce current guidelines.
    Oh, brother, another know-it-all. The Bakken fields are very light oil. Have fun with your Viagra and glossy lipstick.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius View Post
    So now that the long term unemployed will be losing their benefits, will this help or hurt the country?
    It doesn't really matter. Your country is doomed because it violated the Law of Supply & Demand. There are consequence to violating the Law, and you all are now suffering for that.

    Besides, this is good for the US. You have to answer for all of the evil in the world that you have done, oppressing millions of people, interfering in the sovereign affairs of nations, retarding the social, political and economic development of countries, stealing the resources and wealth of countries.

    Call it karma if you want, but you're all about to be served a heaping dose of it.

    And then maybe, just maybe, you might actually become the Christian Nation you claim to be and "Do unto others...." but I doubt it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tired Old Man View Post
    Just how long should we pay the long term unemployed ?
    13 weeks State and 13 weeks federal. If people want longer than that, then I recommend they purchase their own supplemental unemployment insurance (and yes, you can certainly do that).

    Quote Originally Posted by Tired Old Man View Post
    What is it now, 99 weeks?
    No, it has been extended. A lot of the prior 99-Weekers who are no longer drawing unemployment have to be pissed as Hell for getting stiffed.

    Am I fucking god-like walk-on-water awesome or what:

    Third-quarter GDP growth cut to 1.8% from 2.0%
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/thi...-20-2011-12-22

    Exactly as I freaking predicted, the third and final revision for 3rd Quarter GDP growth was 1.8%.

    The initial was 2.5% (which I laughed at) and then came 2.0% in the second revision and the final is 1.8%.

    I've been thinking about starting a Social Security/Medicare Collapse blog. I want people to see what's happening, so that they can make informed decisions, and also point out the incompetence of the government employees who prepared those reports. Especially the math. I want people to see the math and how fatally flawed it is (to the point of making me vomit). I mean seriously, this kind of incompetence is unwarranted, and you people are paying tax money for people to lie to you. I'm going to show you just a few things, and if you don't have the June 2011 Social Security Administration Actuarial Report, you can find it here:

    http://ssa.gov/finance/2011/Full%20FY%202011%20PAR.pdf

    If you down-load the report, either look at Page 36 (actual) or it should appear as Page 44 of 244 if you are using Adobe Reader. Specifically, this is

    Table IV.A1.—Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 2006-20a

    I want you to look at the Assumptions for Calendar Years 2011 and 2012 at Net Payroll Tax Contributions (under Income). The figures provided are:

    Intermediate:
    2011 $482.7 Billion
    2012 $616.1 Billion

    Low:
    2011 $484.1 Billion
    2012 $623.6 Billion

    High:
    2011 $481.3 Billion
    2012 $608.2 Billion

    Those are projected increases of 27.64%, 28.82% and 26.37% respectively. Are those assumptions realistic? Possible? Feasible? No, it is none of those.

    Those assumptions are impossible.

    How in the hell can Social Security's (and Medicare's) revenues increase at such a fantastic rate? That could happen, if and only if, your unemployment rate was restored to 5% and your labor participation rate was restored to 66.4% or greater.

    This is December 28, so you have 3 days to create 9 Million jobs. Again, is that realistic? Possible? Feasible? No, it is none of those.

    And SSA has already taken into consideration the payroll tax cut that went into effect in January (2011) earlier this year.

    I'll direct your attention back to the same page at the remaining years through 2020 for each of the Low, Intermediate and High Assumptions. For simplicity, let's focus on the Intermediate Assumptions.

    Social Security projected payroll tax revenues for 2013 at $653.0 Billion and are based on a 5.99% increase over assumed revenues for 2012, which were supposed to increase 27.64%. That isn't going to happen.

    So, what can we say about Social Security's revenue projections from 2012 to 2020?

    They are wrong. The revenue projections for 2020 are based on a 5+% increase over 2019, which is based on a 5+% increase over 2018, all the way back to 2013, and those revenue projections are based on the 27% increase in 2012 which will never happen.

    They have also failed to take into consideration your labor participation rate. In the pre-recession period, it was 66.4% but has been steadily decreasing to the present 64.0% rate. What does that mean? It means that 3.6 Million people have lost their jobs, have not worked, are not working now and will probably never work again for the rest of their natural lives. I'm looking at your country at 5% unemployment with a labor participation rate of about 62.8% by the end of the decade. That would effectively mean that 5.4 Million Americans permanently lost their jobs (and I've been saying since 2006 that 5 Million jobs would permanently be lost -- as in forever -- with "forever" meaning "at no time ever" will those jobs come back).

    Right now the situation is that 3.6 Million fewer Americans are not working and not paying Social Security payroll taxes, so how can Social Security revenues possibly increase?

    They cannot. Your labor participation rate must be restored to 66.4% in order to collect the revenues that Social Security claims it will be collecting, and if it doesn't, then that means you burn through the Trust Fund faster, causing Social Security to collapse in 2028, and not in 2036 (Combined OASI/OADI Trust Fund) as SSA claims. That means a 23% cut in Social Security benefits in 2028 in order to keep pay all beneficiaries.

    Go to the Social Security calculator and find out what your estimated monthly benefits will be for your retirement, then subtract 23%. That means if your estimate is $1,183 per month, then you would only really get $910/month.

    Originally, I was of the opinion that eliminating the cap on Social Security would resolve many of the problems, but that is not the case. People will go to the IRS website and see that there were 236,883 in 2009 who earned more than $1 Million.

    The hauled in $727 Billion, or an average of $3,069,025

    I'll show you how the idiots at the CBO do this, and how fantasy and reality don't mix.

    We'll just call the Social Security cap $110,000 for easy (well easier) math.

    So 236,883 people will pay 6.2% on $110,000 for a total of $6,820 per person and an aggregated total of $1,615,542,060 ($1.6 Million).

    236,883 people already paid FICA on the first $110,000 for a total taxable income of $26,057,130,000 ($26 Billion).

    CBO will then subtract $26 Billion from $727 Billion, to get $701 Billion, then they think they will collect 6.2% taxes on that $701 Billion, which would amount to another $43,462,000,000 ($43 Billion) in FICA revenues for Social Security. And additional $43 Billion would certainly help (don't get me wrong), but that's only if you actually collect $43 Billion. There's nothing to stop the more than 50% of NBA, NFL, Major League Baseball, actors, actresses, musicians and entertainers from having their salaries paid as deferred compensation, in order to avoid paying the payroll tax. They can covert the deferred compensation to cash later, and pay personal income taxes, but avoid paying the Social Security FICA tax. Then of course the other 50% who earn more than that are mostly CEOs and presidents. They can rather easily set their salary at $1 Million, pay themselves $19 Million in stock options, then convert the stock options to cash and pay the Capital Gains, then avoid paying the Social Security FICA tax.

    There are as many clever schemes as there are clever tax accounts.

    In addition to elminating the cap, you'd have to also employ means-testing. That means

    <$100,000 100% OASI
    $100,000 to $150,000 85% OASI
    $150,000 to $200,000 60% OASI
    $200,000 to $250,000 50% OASI
    >$250,000 and above get 0%

    That might extend Social Security to maybe 2040. Maybe even 2050, before the system just totally collapses.

    I hate to be a party killer and rain on people's parades, but look at Page 66 (actual) which should appear as Page 74 of 244 in Adobe Reader. Specifically, the notes under

    Table IV.B6.—Unfunded OASDI Obligations for 1935 (Program Inception) Through the Infinite Horizon, Based on Intermediate Assumptions

    All of Social Security's assumptions are based on the US having a GDP of "$1,460.4 trillion" in the year 2085 or

    $1,460,400,000,000,000

    That is $1.4 QUADRILLION. Lest anyone be confused, enter "1460.4" into your calculator then multiply by 1,000,000,000,000 (1 TRILLION).

    Your GDP is presently $15,059,000,000,000 or $15.05 TRILLION.

    It is 2011. We're going to 2085.

    At what rate does your GDP need to grow annually to get from $15 TRILLION to $1.4 QUADRILLION?

    6.4%

    That is impossible. You are a post-Industrialized nation. A rate of 3% is normal and 4% would be simply stellar.

    Let's analyze your GDP of late:

    2000-2010 1.68%
    1990-2010 2.55%
    1980-2010 2.79%
    1970-2010 2.89%
    1960-2010 3.16%

    1961-1970 4.22%
    1971-1980 3.21%
    1981-1990 3.27%
    1991-2000 3.41%
    2001-2010. 1.68%

    Average 2.89%

    Notice anything? Your GDP has declined somewhat.

    Is that unusual? No. Again, you are a post-Industrialized nation, and you did not complete Industrialization 100% until the mid-1960s. I call it 1964, but if you want to argue 1965 or even 1966 when you finished industrializing I'm not going to get hot and bothered. Agriculture is always the last phase or aspect of Industrialization on a national level and you did not fully start industrializing the Agricultural Sector until the early 1950s and you finished in the mid-1960s. Your population changed from a majority rural to a majority urban during that time, as part of the Industrialization process.

    Let us for the sake of argument assume for the moment that 2001-2010 is an outlier and that your GDP generally grows at just over 3%.

    How does 3% = 6.4%?

    How are you going to make it to $1.4 QUADRILLION if your economy only grows at 3%?

    Well, you aren't going to make it.

    At 3%, your GDP will grow from $15 TRILLION in 2011, to a mere $134.1 TRILLION in 2085.

    So...then....

    $1,400,000,000,000,000
    - $134,100,000,000,000
    -------------------------
    $1,325,800,600,000,000

    We seem to have a discrepancy, in fact, a short-fall of about $1.325 QUADRILLION.

    Where on Earth is Social Security going to find the money to pay beneficiaries through 2085 when their projections are based on a mythical GDP of $1.4 QUADRILLION?

    For those who don't understand how this comes into play, it works like this:

    1] Social Security makes the bogus claim that your GDP will grow at 6.4% and therefore, in the year 2035, your GDP will be $66 TRILLION.

    2] A percentage of your GDP is payroll, ie labor earnings paid to workers. For shats and gaggles, let's just say for easy math that this percentage is 20%.

    3] Because SSA erred on the GDP assumptions, they are assuming that 20% payroll will be $13,200,000,000,000 ($13.2 TRILLION).

    4] Because SSA falsely believes payroll will be $13.2 TRILLION, it will derive payroll taxes of 6.2% for Social Security revenues, or $818,400,000,000 ($818 Billion) in 2035.

    That is not going to happen.

    And just think, your tax dollars are paying to employ fucktards like that who are dumber than a box of rocks.

    The June 2011 Medicare Actuarial Report makes the exact same mistakes that SSA makes. Medicare claims the Trust Fund is solvent through 2024, but that isn't true at all. My initial indications are that Medicare will collapse in 2018, which is just a few years away.

    There is no saving Medicare. It will have to undergo a major over-haul with major revisions and changes in the way it operates.

    As I see, there are 3 possible ways to go if you want to save Medicare:

    1] Change Medicare to Catastrophic coverage only. That means seniors will have to have their own "health insurance" (snicker) if they want to doctor's office visits covered.

    2] Change Medicare to primary/basic care coverage only. That means seniors will have to pay for their own catastrophic coverage plans.

    3] Reclassify all medical procedures, devices and prescription drugs as life-saving, life-threatening and elective. Seniors pay 100% out of pocket for anything elective. That means Viagra and penis pumps are elective, and should be paid for by taxpayers. Prescription allergy drugs, like Claritin are elective, because they do not save lives, nor do they (in most cases) prevent life-threatening conditions. Allergy drugs are "feel good" drugs. Seniors can pay 100% out of pocket for that crap. And you'll need "death panels." Didn't they give Obama's grandmother a hip-replacement even though she was dying of cancer or something like that? That kind of stupidity has to end.

    I don't think any of those will go over big, but you don't have any choice in the matter. You don't have the money to pay for it. Wishing you had the money, or pretending that you do doesn't change the fact that you don't have the money to pay for (you never did --- and never will). You can tax every person and business 100% and you still wouldn't have the money (and it wouldn't matter because you wouldn't have an economy either).
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  3. #2003
    ### of all Things Nuclear Ningishiddza's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by hobobone View Post
    The unemployment numbers are also very misleading in the fact that many of the jobs that people have recently acquired, are holiday jobs and right after the first of the year will disappear. I know two people who were hired at Sears and were told to expect to be laid off by around 1/15/12....
    Your friends were right.

    Sears, Kmart Closings Will Shutter 3 Percent Of Company's Stores

    There's the headline that "dozens of Kmart, Sears stores to close" and the topline news that "between 100 and 120 Sears and Kmart stores" are going to be shut down as the retailer looks to trim costs and move ahead after it endured a pretty poor holiday shopping season.
    http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/...=1&f=103943429

    Quote Originally Posted by hobobone View Post
    It will be interesting to see if the unemployment benefits are extended.
    They were as part of the Bread & Circuses™ routine.

    Quote Originally Posted by hobobone View Post
    I know people who have been on unemployment for 4 years..They wont get a job due to the fact that they made so much money in their previous employment, that no one can even come close to matching it...
    I don't know about the laws in all States, but I do know that is fraud in Ohio (you cannot turn down a job because it doesn't pay enough), and in this climate, it will be dealt with severely. In Ohio, the only way you can legally turn down a job would be if you applied for a job as a machinist, and it turns out you'd actually be operating a grinder instead of a lathe or mill (as an example). Ohio does have a [very] small staff of fraud investigators, plus they routinely do audits. You're required to record your contacts. If they call an employer you listed and you did not file an application or resume, or you declined a job because of the money, the State will get medieval on you. And I do mean medieval. If you own a home/condo, you'll get a notice to leave the premises within 30 days (because the State will seize your property and auction it off to recover the money).

    Quote Originally Posted by hobobone View Post
    That loss of spending from those people will also affect our economy..
    Yes, but not that greatly.

    Quote Originally Posted by PoorOldRobert View Post
    Ditto Bakken and Haynesville oil shale fields. It's a shame there isn't a reasonable energy policy in the U.S. More stringent laws? Why? Enforce current guidelines.
    Oh, brother, another know-it-all. The Bakken fields are very light oil. Have fun with your Viagra and glossy lipstick.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius View Post
    So now that the long term unemployed will be losing their benefits, will this help or hurt the country?
    It doesn't really matter. Your country is doomed because it violated the Law of Supply & Demand. There are consequence to violating the Law, and you all are now suffering for that.

    Besides, this is good for the US. You have to answer for all of the evil in the world that you have done, oppressing millions of people, interfering in the sovereign affairs of nations, retarding the social, political and economic development of countries, stealing the resources and wealth of countries.

    Call it karma if you want, but you're all about to be served a heaping dose of it.

    And then maybe, just maybe, you might actually become the Christian Nation you claim to be and "Do unto others...." but I doubt it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tired Old Man View Post
    Just how long should we pay the long term unemployed ?
    13 weeks State and 13 weeks federal. If people want longer than that, then I recommend they purchase their own supplemental unemployment insurance (and yes, you can certainly do that).

    Quote Originally Posted by Tired Old Man View Post
    What is it now, 99 weeks?
    No, it has been extended. A lot of the prior 99-Weekers who are no longer drawing unemployment have to be pissed as Hell for getting stiffed.

    Am I fucking god-like walk-on-water awesome or what:

    Third-quarter GDP growth cut to 1.8% from 2.0%
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/thi...-20-2011-12-22

    Exactly as I freaking predicted, the third and final revision for 3rd Quarter GDP growth was 1.8%.

    The initial was 2.5% (which I laughed at) and then came 2.0% in the second revision and the final is 1.8%.

    I've been thinking about starting a Social Security/Medicare Collapse blog. I want people to see what's happening, so that they can make informed decisions, and also point out the incompetence of the government employees who prepared those reports. Especially the math. I want people to see the math and how fatally flawed it is (to the point of making me vomit). I mean seriously, this kind of incompetence is unwarranted, and you people are paying tax money for people to lie to you. I'm going to show you just a few things, and if you don't have the June 2011 Social Security Administration Actuarial Report, you can find it here:

    http://ssa.gov/finance/2011/Full%20FY%202011%20PAR.pdf

    If you down-load the report, either look at Page 36 (actual) or it should appear as Page 44 of 244 if you are using Adobe Reader. Specifically, this is

    Table IV.A1.—Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 2006-20a

    I want you to look at the Assumptions for Calendar Years 2011 and 2012 at Net Payroll Tax Contributions (under Income). The figures provided are:

    Intermediate:
    2011 $482.7 Billion
    2012 $616.1 Billion

    Low:
    2011 $484.1 Billion
    2012 $623.6 Billion

    High:
    2011 $481.3 Billion
    2012 $608.2 Billion

    Those are projected increases of 27.64%, 28.82% and 26.37% respectively. Are those assumptions realistic? Possible? Feasible? No, it is none of those.

    Those assumptions are impossible.

    How in the hell can Social Security's (and Medicare's) revenues increase at such a fantastic rate? That could happen, if and only if, your unemployment rate was restored to 5% and your labor participation rate was restored to 66.4% or greater.

    This is December 28, so you have 3 days to create 9 Million jobs. Again, is that realistic? Possible? Feasible? No, it is none of those.

    And SSA has already taken into consideration the payroll tax cut that went into effect in January (2011) earlier this year.

    I'll direct your attention back to the same page at the remaining years through 2020 for each of the Low, Intermediate and High Assumptions. For simplicity, let's focus on the Intermediate Assumptions.

    Social Security projected payroll tax revenues for 2013 at $653.0 Billion and are based on a 5.99% increase over assumed revenues for 2012, which were supposed to increase 27.64%. That isn't going to happen.

    So, what can we say about Social Security's revenue projections from 2012 to 2020?

    They are wrong. The revenue projections for 2020 are based on a 5+% increase over 2019, which is based on a 5+% increase over 2018, all the way back to 2013, and those revenue projections are based on the 27% increase in 2012 which will never happen.

    They have also failed to take into consideration your labor participation rate. In the pre-recession period, it was 66.4% but has been steadily decreasing to the present 64.0% rate. What does that mean? It means that 3.6 Million people have lost their jobs, have not worked, are not working now and will probably never work again for the rest of their natural lives. I'm looking at your country at 5% unemployment with a labor participation rate of about 62.8% by the end of the decade. That would effectively mean that 5.4 Million Americans permanently lost their jobs (and I've been saying since 2006 that 5 Million jobs would permanently be lost -- as in forever -- with "forever" meaning "at no time ever" will those jobs come back).

    Right now the situation is that 3.6 Million fewer Americans are not working and not paying Social Security payroll taxes, so how can Social Security revenues possibly increase?

    They cannot. Your labor participation rate must be restored to 66.4% in order to collect the revenues that Social Security claims it will be collecting, and if it doesn't, then that means you burn through the Trust Fund faster, causing Social Security to collapse in 2028, and not in 2036 (Combined OASI/OADI Trust Fund) as SSA claims. That means a 23% cut in Social Security benefits in 2028 in order to keep pay all beneficiaries.

    Go to the Social Security calculator and find out what your estimated monthly benefits will be for your retirement, then subtract 23%. That means if your estimate is $1,183 per month, then you would only really get $910/month.

    Originally, I was of the opinion that eliminating the cap on Social Security would resolve many of the problems, but that is not the case. People will go to the IRS website and see that there were 236,883 in 2009 who earned more than $1 Million.

    The hauled in $727 Billion, or an average of $3,069,025

    I'll show you how the idiots at the CBO do this, and how fantasy and reality don't mix.

    We'll just call the Social Security cap $110,000 for easy (well easier) math.

    So 236,883 people will pay 6.2% on $110,000 for a total of $6,820 per person and an aggregated total of $1,615,542,060 ($1.6 Million).

    236,883 people already paid FICA on the first $110,000 for a total taxable income of $26,057,130,000 ($26 Billion).

    CBO will then subtract $26 Billion from $727 Billion, to get $701 Billion, then they think they will collect 6.2% taxes on that $701 Billion, which would amount to another $43,462,000,000 ($43 Billion) in FICA revenues for Social Security. And additional $43 Billion would certainly help (don't get me wrong), but that's only if you actually collect $43 Billion. There's nothing to stop the more than 50% of NBA, NFL, Major League Baseball, actors, actresses, musicians and entertainers from having their salaries paid as deferred compensation, in order to avoid paying the payroll tax. They can covert the deferred compensation to cash later, and pay personal income taxes, but avoid paying the Social Security FICA tax. Then of course the other 50% who earn more than that are mostly CEOs and presidents. They can rather easily set their salary at $1 Million, pay themselves $19 Million in stock options, then convert the stock options to cash and pay the Capital Gains, then avoid paying the Social Security FICA tax.

    There are as many clever schemes as there are clever tax accounts.

    In addition to elminating the cap, you'd have to also employ means-testing. That means

    <$100,000 100% OASI
    $100,000 to $150,000 85% OASI
    $150,000 to $200,000 60% OASI
    $200,000 to $250,000 50% OASI
    >$250,000 and above get 0%

    That might extend Social Security to maybe 2040. Maybe even 2050, before the system just totally collapses.

    I hate to be a party killer and rain on people's parades, but look at Page 66 (actual) which should appear as Page 74 of 244 in Adobe Reader. Specifically, the notes under

    Table IV.B6.—Unfunded OASDI Obligations for 1935 (Program Inception) Through the Infinite Horizon, Based on Intermediate Assumptions

    All of Social Security's assumptions are based on the US having a GDP of "$1,460.4 trillion" in the year 2085 or

    $1,460,400,000,000,000

    That is $1.4 QUADRILLION. Lest anyone be confused, enter "1460.4" into your calculator then multiply by 1,000,000,000,000 (1 TRILLION).

    Your GDP is presently $15,059,000,000,000 or $15.05 TRILLION.

    It is 2011. We're going to 2085.

    At what rate does your GDP need to grow annually to get from $15 TRILLION to $1.4 QUADRILLION?

    6.4%

    That is impossible. You are a post-Industrialized nation. A rate of 3% is normal and 4% would be simply stellar.

    Let's analyze your GDP of late:

    2000-2010 1.68%
    1990-2010 2.55%
    1980-2010 2.79%
    1970-2010 2.89%
    1960-2010 3.16%

    1961-1970 4.22%
    1971-1980 3.21%
    1981-1990 3.27%
    1991-2000 3.41%
    2001-2010. 1.68%

    Average 2.89%

    Notice anything? Your GDP has declined somewhat.

    Is that unusual? No. Again, you are a post-Industrialized nation, and you did not complete Industrialization 100% until the mid-1960s. I call it 1964, but if you want to argue 1965 or even 1966 when you finished industrializing I'm not going to get hot and bothered. Agriculture is always the last phase or aspect of Industrialization on a national level and you did not fully start industrializing the Agricultural Sector until the early 1950s and you finished in the mid-1960s. Your population changed from a majority rural to a majority urban during that time, as part of the Industrialization process.

    Let us for the sake of argument assume for the moment that 2001-2010 is an outlier and that your GDP generally grows at just over 3%.

    How does 3% = 6.4%?

    How are you going to make it to $1.4 QUADRILLION if your economy only grows at 3%?

    Well, you aren't going to make it.

    At 3%, your GDP will grow from $15 TRILLION in 2011, to a mere $134.1 TRILLION in 2085.

    So...then....

    $1,400,000,000,000,000
    - $134,100,000,000,000
    -------------------------
    $1,325,800,600,000,000

    We seem to have a discrepancy, in fact, a short-fall of about $1.325 QUADRILLION.

    Where on Earth is Social Security going to find the money to pay beneficiaries through 2085 when their projections are based on a mythical GDP of $1.4 QUADRILLION?

    For those who don't understand how this comes into play, it works like this:

    1] Social Security makes the bogus claim that your GDP will grow at 6.4% and therefore, in the year 2035, your GDP will be $66 TRILLION.

    2] A percentage of your GDP is payroll, ie labor earnings paid to workers. For shats and gaggles, let's just say for easy math that this percentage is 20%.

    3] Because SSA erred on the GDP assumptions, they are assuming that 20% payroll will be $13,200,000,000,000 ($13.2 TRILLION).

    4] Because SSA falsely believes payroll will be $13.2 TRILLION, it will derive payroll taxes of 6.2% for Social Security revenues, or $818,400,000,000 ($818 Billion) in 2035.

    That is not going to happen.

    And just think, your tax dollars are paying to employ fucktards like that who are dumber than a box of rocks.

    The June 2011 Medicare Actuarial Report makes the exact same mistakes that SSA makes. Medicare claims the Trust Fund is solvent through 2024, but that isn't true at all. My initial indications are that Medicare will collapse in 2018, which is just a few years away.

    There is no saving Medicare. It will have to undergo a major over-haul with major revisions and changes in the way it operates.

    As I see, there are 3 possible ways to go if you want to save Medicare:

    1] Change Medicare to Catastrophic coverage only. That means seniors will have to have their own "health insurance" (snicker) if they want to doctor's office visits covered.

    2] Change Medicare to primary/basic care coverage only. That means seniors will have to pay for their own catastrophic coverage plans.

    3] Reclassify all medical procedures, devices and prescription drugs as life-saving, life-threatening and elective. Seniors pay 100% out of pocket for anything elective. That means Viagra and penis pumps are elective, and should be paid for by taxpayers. Prescription allergy drugs, like Claritin are elective, because they do not save lives, nor do they (in most cases) prevent life-threatening conditions. Allergy drugs are "feel good" drugs. Seniors can pay 100% out of pocket for that crap. And you'll need "death panels." Didn't they give Obama's grandmother a hip-replacement even though she was dying of cancer or something like that? That kind of stupidity has to end.

    I don't think any of those will go over big, but you don't have any choice in the matter. You don't have the money to pay for it. Wishing you had the money, or pretending that you do doesn't change the fact that you don't have the money to pay for (you never did --- and never will). You can tax every person and business 100% and you still wouldn't have the money (and it wouldn't matter because you wouldn't have an economy either).
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  4. #2004
    Prepared survivor Seasoned Member hobobone's Avatar
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    Wonk wa wonk wonk wonk
    Last edited by hobobone; Jan 6th, 2014 at 7:04 PM.
    America is a two faced dictatorship, and the dictator is $$$$$$.

  5. #2005
    ### of all Things Nuclear Ningishiddza's Avatar
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    Yee-haaa. Survey says:

    Less than a quarter of companies to hire in 2012: CareerBuilder

    The employment picture won’t change much next year, with less than a quarter of hiring managers planning to take on more employees.

    In a survey of more than 3,000 human resource and hiring professionals, 23% said they’ll add full-time, permanent staff in 2012, down a bit from the 24% who said the same this year, according to job search site CareerBuilder. The percentage of companies that plan to cut staff -– 7% -- hasn’t budged year over year.

    Seven in 10 firms either intend to keep their staff at the same size or are unsure of their hiring and layoff plans, according to CareerBuilder. Slightly more employers in the western part of the country will recruit new workers than in other U.S. regions –- but more companies there also plan to downsize their staff.
    http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/mone...erbuilder.html

    Folks, I ain't bull-shitting. Your economy will be recessionary through the end of this decade. Hell, even the CBO now agrees with me. I guess they finally opened their eyes and saw there is no way in hell your unemployment rate will be 5% by December 2016 (and if it is, then it will be because your labor participation rate is 62% which is the same thing as having 9% unemployed).
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  6. #2006
    ### of all Things Nuclear Ningishiddza's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hobobone View Post
    Most people have collected a year in Pa....then came the extension of six months, and after that came the emergency extension for another six months...during the emergency extension one must apply for two sources of employment every week, and can not turn down any job regardless of wage..
    That's similar to Ohio.

    Ohio requires 2 job contacts per month. Generally, States require 1 to 4 contacts per month in order to receive unemployment benefits. One of the elements of unemployment redefined in 1994 is that you are considered unemployed if and only if you are actively seeking employment and that you have sought work at least once over any given 4-week period.

    Ohio has a fraud division and actively pursues unemployment insurance fraud. The employment bureau audits a certain percentage of cases to uncover potential fraud, and then the fraud division uses computer analysis to target likely fraud based on certain criteria. I do not know what that criteria is, but if I had to venture a guess, I would say it's based on zip code, the individual's occupations held, previously reported household income, and perhaps a few other factors. When audited, they will contact your employer to verify that you submitted a resume or application and then ask if you were offered a job. If you were and you refused it, they'll cut you off, and then demand repayment of unemployment benefits. And they are ruthless. They'll seize your bank accounts and take your cars and home.


    Quote Originally Posted by hobobone View Post
    Those i spoke of that collected for four years, worked for six months in between collecting...One individual has told me that, when they went back to work after losing a well paying job, they actually were asked to work much harder for less money...They refused to do this and then got laid off after six months of work...hence roughly 4 years of unemployment.
    This article explains a lot:

    Factory Jobs Gain, but Wages Retreat

    The wages for the new hires, however, are $10 to $15 an hour less than the pay scale for hourly employees already on staff — with the additional concession that the newcomers will not catch up for the foreseeable future. Such union-endorsed contracts are also showing up in the auto industry, at steel and tire companies, and at manufacturers of farm implements and other heavy equipment, according to Gordon Pavy, president of the Labor and Employment Relations Association and, until recently, the A.F.L.-C.I.O.’s director of collective bargaining.

    The shrunken pay scale for newcomers — $12 to $19 an hour versus $21 to $32 an hour for longtime workers — threatens to undo the middle-class status of even the best-paid blue-collar jobs still left in manufacturing. A similar contract limits the wages of new hires at a nearby Ford Motor Company stamping plant, but neither G.E.’s 2,000 hourly workers nor Ford’s 2,900, nor their unions nor the mayor, Greg Fischer, have objected.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/30/bu...%2Findex.jsonp

    Confirms what I have been saying the last several years. Wages for US workers must decline and will decline until they reach an equilibrium with the wage of workers in the global work-forces of other countries. I wouldn't get too comfortable, because when BRIC starts developing sub-Saharan Africa, assuming the US doesn't use its drone campaign to continue to enslave Africans, you'll repeat this entire process.

    Jobs will flee to the US to the emerging sub-Saharan African market, and then your wages will decline yet again, but that won't start to happen for another 12-15 years from now.

    This also further proves that both the Social Security and Medicare actuarial reports are totally FUBAR. Even when unemployment eventually reaches 5%, there will be several million fewer workers, and those who will be working will be making less money, which means Social Security and Medicare will not be receiving the revenues they claim they will be receiving, and their demise will accelerate that much faster.
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  7. #2007
    Fuq Haters Contributor Nu Kua's Avatar
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    Firedog Lake:
    The Remarkable Public Sector Depression

    ...The chart looks at public sector payrolls from 1973 to the present. As you can see, in the 35 years between 1973 and 2008, the public sector lost jobs only three times: twice during the recession of 1981-82, and then a small loss in 2003. Not only that, but the public sector routinely adds 200,000 or more to the payrolls every single year. In boom years that number can reach up to 500,000, as it did in 2001 (in the midst of a slight recession, mind you).

    Now look at the last three years of the chart. From 2009-2011 the public sector has fallen every year. That’s completely unprecedented in generations. Even in 2011, when the private sector had its best year from a jobs standpoint since 2005, the public sector had a horrific time of it, losing more jobs than any year since 1981....

  8. #2008
    Bull$hit Artist Contributor Blu-ray's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nu Kua View Post
    Firedog Lake:
    The Remarkable Public Sector Depression



    Public sector always lags behind the Private sector. Public sector pay lags in increases, and lags in layoffs, sometimes. While people were getting higher pay during the boom public employees got very little pay raises. Then as the pay raises started coming in, the economy crashed, the private sector got beat with layoffs. Now the public sector is catching up with private. It's usually how it goes.


  9. #2009
    Fuq Haters Contributor Nu Kua's Avatar
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    OK then, that guy is going on about nothing then? I know little about this end of the deal and usually just post in this thread if I find something I think you guys might be interested in. Thanks for educating me!

  10. #2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nu Kua View Post
    educating me!
    Okay so I'm talking your words out of context. But I am trying to make a point. Yes it is time not only to talk about a depression but what it means.
    Crap....I'm not sure how to put this into words. Okay let me try this. What you know today as basic living will become ......
    Out of the reach of anyone with out a job. For some that still have a job, it won't matter.
    The cost of living will become unaffordable .

    Is unaffordable a word ? It doesn't sound right. Unless your ....broke.
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  11. #2011
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    Remaking America

    I caught this on cspan last night, and thought it was worth the watch...


    Tavis Smiley Hosts Symposium on Poverty in America



    Panelists discuss a recent report from Indiana University on how poverty is changing in America. Participants include Princeton professor Cornel West, TV host Suze Orman, filmmaker Michael Moore, and author Barbara Ehrenreich. Tavis Smiley moderates the discussion.

  12. #2012
    ### of all Things Nuclear Ningishiddza's Avatar
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    For you viewing pleasure:

    http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/

    The site lists plant closings, store closings, restaurant closings, layoffs etc, plus bankruptcies. It only includes those notices published in newspapers across the country. Obviously, it doesn't include every layoff or closing (those listed in the right-hand column).

    Scroll down and on the left side (layoffs) you'll notice a lot of school districts, government offices, especially federal and military bases laying off employees, or not hiring for vacant positions.

    That's the magic of Obama's FICA payroll tax decrease.

    Pulling money from the General Fund decreases money for agencies, because their budgets get raided to pay for Social Security. That results in hiring freezes, layoffs or terminations. The reduced spending also causes lay-offs in the civilian world. It's also the magic of lower housing prices. That reduces property tax revenues which forces layoffs and terminations in Sate and local government, especially schools. I think it's a good thing. Schools need to get lean and mean and re-invent themselves, and they simply will not do that, unless you stick a gun to their heads. Declining revenues are the gun; more lost revenues are needed to pull the hammer back.

    Note the layoffs for the wind-turbine company. Look at all the tax payer money wasted on "green" crap.
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  13. #2013
    Bull$hit Artist Contributor Blu-ray's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ningishiddza View Post
    That's the magic of Obama's FICA payroll tax decrease.
    And the magic of not raising taxes on the upper classes.


  14. #2014
    ### of all Things Nuclear Ningishiddza's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blu-ray View Post
    And the magic of not raising taxes on the upper classes.
    Tax them at 99.9999% if you want. It won't change anything.

    Unless you reduce federal spending to not more than $1.25 TRILLION per year, nothing you do will work.
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  15. #2015
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    Cool Insanity

    Their is a book called, "The Age of Insanity." It speaks of fragmentation in our lives created by the industrial revolution as the main issue with depression and other disorders.

  16. #2016
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    Seeking answers

    Two Tulsa men, a Catholic and a Protestant, were among an elite group of leaders who met last week at the Vatican to prepare a report on social issues that will be presented to Pope Benedict XVI.

    Among the 30 or so participants were the founder of Wikipedia, a former president of Peru, a Nobel Prize winner and the president of the European Central Bank.


    Russell Hittinger, philosophy professor at the University of Tulsa, was coordinator of the event, called the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences, and the Rev. Ed Gungor, co-pastor of Sanctuary Church in Tulsa, went along to assist him by writing a daily report on the discussions of the group.
    "The question of economic order came up every day," he said.

    "The younger generation fears the economic market. No one seems to have any control over it.

    "One of the main threats to peace in our time is not bombs and missiles, but people acting irrationally in the grip of (economic) fear. We spent a lot of time talking about this," he said.

    A second major topic was the global revolution in communications, he said.

    "What does it mean that a teenager in Indonesia can interact with a teenager in Canada?"

    National borders that used to produce a certain stability are being erased, he said.
    this article would have got past me, so i'll post it up for yall

  17. #2017
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    CBO chief warns of 'fiscal cliff' and potential recession

    Not that I believe we ever got out of the last recession..... This is how screwed we are, and you can't blame it Dems or Repubs alone, they both are guilty.

    The director of the Congressional Budget Office, Douglas Elmendorf, said Wednesday that currently planned sharp cuts in spending and increases in taxes at the end of the year would cause “a dramatic reduction in the federal deficit” and “a significant tightening of fiscal policy” which would “probably lead to a recession early next year.”

    Damned if we do, damned if we don't.
    "America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter, and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed
    ourselves."
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  18. #2018
    ### of all Things Nuclear Ningishiddza's Avatar
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    Manufacturing sector shrinks for third straight month

    Manufacturing shrank at its sharpest clip in more than three years in August, the third month of contraction in a row, and firms hired the fewest workers since late 2009, a survey on Tuesday showed. The Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity fell to 49.6 in August from 49.8 in July. The reading fell shy of the 50.0 median estimate in a Reuters poll of economists. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector.
    http://economywatch.nbcnews.com/_new...ght-month?lite

    I'm predicting corn harvests will be 50%-60% below normal and the result will be that December Corn Futures (currently trading at $8/bushel) will be over $9/bushel.

    This will result in continued Cost Inflation driving up gasoline and food prices for the remainder of this year, plus the 1st Quarter of 2013.

    On a brighter note, for those of you receiving or know someone who is receiving OASI/DI Social Security Benefits, I am predicting a COLA increase for December to start with January 2013 checks.

    The higher fuel and food prices will boost the CPI-W.

    Presently, based on the July CPI-W the COLA increase stands at 1.8%. We'll have the August CPI-W figures in about a week or so. I'm not making any predictions, other than the COLA increase should fall between 1.8% to 4.2%.
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  19. #2019
    ### of all Things Nuclear Ningishiddza's Avatar
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    Uh, sometime in the last 2 weeks, Social Security has changed their web-site....


    The Retirement Estimator gives estimates based on your actual Social Security earnings record. Please keep in mind that these are just estimates. We can’t provide your actual benefit amount until you apply for benefits. And that amount may differ from the estimates provided because:

    Your earnings may increase or decrease in the future.
    After you start receiving benefits, they will be adjusted for cost-of-living increases.
    Your estimated benefits are based on current law. The law governing benefit amounts may change because, by 2033, the payroll taxes collected will be enough to pay only about 75 cents for each dollar of scheduled benefits.
    http://www.ssa.gov/estimator/

    I highlighted the relevant part. Like I said, it wasn't like that 2 weeks ago. I go there once a month (or more) to grab the Statistical Snapshot and get info on COLA.

    That is quite disturbing. It's sort of like an hint.

    A few things about this. Since 2005, I have maintained that the combined OAS/DI Trust Fund would collapse in 2028. In 2010, the data showed 2025, and as of last year, I've been able to bracket that to 2023-2025. The rough part is BRIC. I don't really have access to good data on BRIC, so I have to make some assumptions based on trends, and I typically take the mid-point of the minimum and maximum and then conservatively adjust that. BRIC's development has taken place much more rapidly than I anticipated, and that has resulted in your wages declining faster than I thought they would.

    http://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/AWI.html#Series

    We can see that through 1960, the average wages of workers increased 4.09%

    1961-1970: 4.45%
    1971-1980: 7.31%
    1981-1990: 5.34%
    1991-2000: 4.35%
    2001-2010: 2.64%

    I had figured 3.55% for the period 2001-2010, but obviously I was off the mark there.

    Anyway, in order to fund both Medicare and Social Security, you need 157,329,200 workers, but you don't have that. Your 41,113,200 workers short. If you had those workers, then you wouldn't have to do anything. But since you don't, you have to come with the money they would have made and paid into the system through FICA/SECA payroll taxes.

    You're $149,004,422,828 or $149 Billion short each year (and this short fall continues to grow). Effectively, every working American has to pay an additional $1,282 in FICA payroll taxes ---- for this year. Next year is more, and more the year after. The average American wage earner gets paid $22.50/hour which is presently $1.40/hour in FICA payroll taxes. You'll have to bump that up to $1.89/hour in order to keep Social Security alive. But that won't do it alone. You'll have to eliminate the wage/salary cap. If you do both of those things, that will keep Social Security around to about 2028, at which time you'll have to increase payroll taxes -- every year for until you're in the 12%-16.4% range and then that just might cover Generation X-Box, but it won't help Generation Y-Work.

    I'm not sure you could actually have an economy with FICA taxes in the 12%-16.4% range. The Obama Tax Cuts have to go, and then the bottom bracket is going to have to be raised to about 18%, which puts you at 30%-36.4% plus State income taxes and city earnings taxes on top of that.

    One other thing. Originally I supported means-testing as one of the ways in addition to raising the FICA rate and eliminating the cap to extend the life of Social Security (and Medicare).

    I no longer support means-testing.

    The reason I no longer support it is that:

    1] in the grand scheme of things, the savings are miniscule
    2] the bulk of the means-testing would apply to those who have pensions (which is why the savings are negligible)
    3] once the pensioners die off, there's no one receiving pensions to means-test
    4] 401(k) plans as a substitute for pensions don't yield the same potential retirement income as a pension plan

    How did I come to that? Social Security presently derives income from three sources: interest on the OASI Trust Fund, FICA taxes collected, and something called "Taxation of Benefits."

    The Taxation of Benefits is in and of itself a means-test. It only applies to those who have income over a certain threshold. Presently that falls on people collecting pensions, like a retired auto-worker who gets $4,800 in pension money and another $2,000 in Social Security benefits each month.

    How much have people put aside?
    The average balance in all 50 million 401(k) accounts is just over $60,000, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Even people within 10 years of retirement have saved an average of only $78,000, and more than a third of them have less than $25,000. More than half of U.S. workers have no retirement plan at all. With Social Security averaging $14,780 a year for individuals and $22,000 for couples, many Americans will exhaust their savings in just a few years.
    http://theweek.com/article/index/226...s-of-americans

    You see stuff like that, and then you go read Fidelity Investments annual report on 401(k) plans and you can see the problem. If you want to collect $12,000 per year out of your 401(l) for 25 years after you retire, then you're going to need $300,000 and $60,000 is not $300,000.

    The point is that Social Security will not be getting the income they think they'll be getting by taxing benefits, because most on 401(k) will not be taxed.

    Finally, we all know that means-testing will be perverted and abused, right?

    You know as well as I do that government cannot help itself and will start tinkering and tweaking the means-testing, and the potential for it to be abused is extremely high. Government will play around with it until the adjust it to a point where the only thing you get is Social Security, because they'll tax the snot out of any 401(k) or savings you have.

    If you don't give government the opportunity to pervert, corrupt and abuse, then they can't, so let's not go there in the first place, and then you don't have to worry about it.
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  20. #2020
    Chat Mods Sirius's Avatar
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    Central bank money machines fail to spur global economy

    But roads paved with good intentions don’t always lead to good places. Though investors have bid up stocks on the theory that another massive wave of cash has to go somewhere, there’s widening doubt that another money flood will boost growth or create more jobs.
    “What central banks everywhere are doing is trying to make sure people are not focused on the world breaking apart,” said Dinakar Singh, CEO of TPG-Axon Capital. “Ultimately I don't think lower rates make that much difference anymore. There aren't that many people left that haven't borrowed money -- companies or people -- but would if rates were lower. “
    To late......
    "America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter, and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed
    ourselves."
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  21. #2021
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    Boehner 'not confident at all' fiscal cliff can be avoided

    The fiscal cliff represents the combined impact of the inability this term in Congress to resolve the future of the Bush tax cuts, which are set to expire at the end of this year, and a long-term solution to mounting deficits to replace the automatic cuts -- which fall heavily on defense spending -- that were included in the 2011 deal to raise the debt ceiling.
    We need to seriously cut defense spending if we are serious about saving this country, but I have a feeling we are not.
    "America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter, and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed
    ourselves."
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  22. #2022
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScreamtheDance View Post
    Companies come and go- but this is not like Woolworth's closing. Big players are going under and huge amount of moneys are being switched around.
    More than the money, the people who go around makes a huge impact!

  23. #2023
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    Fed to buy more debt in effort to boost sluggish economy

    That's the message the Federal Reserve gave Thursday when it announced it will take new steps to boost the sluggish recovery including buying an additional $40 billion of mortgage debt every month for the foreseeable future.
    40 billion a month until employment improves.........

    The latest purchases build on the $2.3 trillion in U.S. government and housing-related debt the Fed has already bought.
    Investors cheered the Fed's announcement. The Dow Jones industrial average, already at its highest level in nearly five years, jumped after the announcement and was up 118 points in afternoon trading.
    I bet they did. Everyone cheers at free money.

    The solution will not come from a Republican or Democratic party member, it has to come from someplace else.
    "America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter, and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed
    ourselves."
    ~Abraham Lincoln

  24. #2024
    ### of all Things Nuclear Ningishiddza's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius View Post
    40 billion a month until employment improves.........
    And if employment never improves?

    In order to solve any problem, you have to understand the problem in order to find a solution. The problem with employment in the US is that Americans cannot compete globally, because Americans are grotesquely over-paid.

    There are only two ways to resolve that.......enact a maximum wage law of $14/hour or wait....about 35 years...until wages in other countries naturally increase in accordance with the Laws of Economics so that Americans can be competitive.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius View Post
    I bet they did. Everyone cheers at free money.
    That's one reason I think stock markets are stupid.

    See the US Dollar? See the US Dollar drop in value against the Euro? See the US Dollar drop in value against the Yen?

    See this.....

    Business in Africa: Nigeria to earn oil exports in Chinese Yuan

    NIgeria is set to earn its oil exports in Chinese Yuan, Business Day reports. Through a new agreement between Nigeria and China, between 5-10% of Nigeria’s foreign export earnings will be domiciled in the Chinese currency.

    http://www.cp-africa.com/2011/09/12/...-chinese-yuan/
    I guess you'll be invading Nigeria next.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sirius View Post
    The solution will not come from a Republican or Democratic party member, it has to come from someplace else.
    Oh, it will come from someplace else......the Laws of Economics.
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  25. #2025
    Life is good Contributor Tired Old Man's Avatar
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    This is a long way from gardening and shame on me for posting in here. The whole political thing....sucks. Ning, in somewhat of a guess, what would you watch . My eyes are on gold and silver. A slow climb up as we see today, not scared yet. My bet, a rapid climb up. Time to buy food. Lots of food.
    The tipping point. From what I read it could happen almost overnight. I don't think it will happen overnight. But it will ( is ) happening. "IF" you had to pick one thing to watch as in "RUN and buy food" what would you pick ?
    Or is just going to be a slow death.
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